Tuesday, October 24, 2006

How much upside is left even to Google's craziest valuation?

When will the game "music chairs" begin? Who will be without the place? In order to Sell you need to have a buyer. If you are buying Google at 480.78, you are buying the company with following valuation from Hard Data on Google Bear Case:
FCF 2006 est 1.712 billion
GAAP EPS 9.44 USD
Revenue 10.4 billion
Market cap at 480.78 stands for 149,3 billion. After YouTube deal if stock will not move from 480.78 dilution will be +3.4 million shares wich will bring Market Cap to 151 billion.
So at 480.78 Google is "on sale" according to majority of analysts with:
2006 est MC/FCF=88.2, P/E=50.9, P/S=14.5 with growth in Revenue in single digits Q/Q and EPS growth +1.3% Q3/Q2 in slowing economy with online advertisement slowing growth reality.

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