Sunday, May 13, 2007

Disaster is coming, it is always here, do not go to bunker - you will miss the best part of life. CS

Save the World and the Great Country, start from yourself, turn off TV and read a book. Think and write something, invest in yourself, seek for signs and meaning, energy and trust. Look around and act, first inside and the rest will follow, just do not let it pass away, give it a Try...
"Every Empire begins with a humbug. Later it develops into mass illusion, self-congratulation, hallucination, farce, and finally disaster. Until the disaster comes, you never know quite where you are. Because for every imbecility that comes along, there are dozens of eager intellectuals ready to promote it and at least half of the population is ready to believe it. Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin"
"Depressions or recessions are caused by basic economic changes of supply or demand or credit. What leaders say about circumstances cannot in itself help or hurt the situation, except perhaps for a few days. Harry D. Schultz"
Signs A Bull Market is Ending (based on HDS):
1. Investment sentiment is still bullish, but economic structure continues to weaken.
2. P/E ratios - market is "...driven by P/E expansion" what is it? Maybe it is just stupidity expansion?! Earnings trick in Q1 2007: cut all estimates and get amused on Bubble Vision on unexpected strong earnings. Wall Streat beloved Google EPS fell in Q1/07 over Q4/06.
3. FED is caught in between: can not CUT in order to stimulate economy because USD will fall further triggering massive exodus of IOU Holders, can not Raise - consumer is on his knees already.
4. Consumer and Investor confidence is still at its peak as it should be at the Top.
5. Gold. In times of uncertainty interest in gold and gold shares picks up. All this spring silent dumping of gold into the market by Central Banks can not break the neck of the Bull. How longer Central bankers will be allowed to commit their crime against their own citizens? It is rhetorical question, the whole system design like it. Just do not get caught in it.
6. Real Estate. Now is in apparent Bear market, killing perceived wealth and consumer's ability to spend beyond any financial reason..
8. Unanimity of Bullish forecast. Turn on Bubble Vision.
9. Sharp rise in Debt. All M&A is liquidity driven, Public/Private flip/flop.
Watch yourself and your "genius" touch: "...tide is lifting all boats, only when it is coming off you can see who is without swimming trunks" Warren Buffet.
Have a nice weekend.

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