Sunday, February 17, 2008

Lundin Mining LUN.to LMC Warning...that it is on track to deliver.

We must be honest, first hand to ourselves, it took me a while to make up my mind with recent negative development and warning from the company:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080214/0362003.html

I do not like it. Thats it. I have let myself into mining company story when market will judge its value not based on its ASSESTS and company's ability to develope them, but on recent earnings and market situation.

I could have done much better if I have sold more at the top and was ready to buy now more agressively, I am still human, thanks God.

Why I am not selling now? It could be a stubborn mistake and that is why I will not add to the position of shares and calls which is substantial part of my portfolio. Very important here: I will survive if it will go to zero.

I have read everything availible about the company, talked to the management, listened to CC and here is my judgement for myself:

1. This is an asset story for me.
2. My value is based on a take over value of company's assets with major catalyst in DRC resolution.
3. All generated cash flow is merely suport of development of its assets.
4. Very important: all recent negativity is not positive...but is not crucial to my game plan.
5. Today on CC I head most important thing for me: Phil Wright is right man for the job, he is cleaning the house and preparing the market to positive suprises, he has put everything straight and any upside from here: in better metall prices or Tenke resolution will shoot the stock up. On the other hand there could be total mess and that is why it is important that I will survive. I like how Lukas Lundin handle the situation: he belives in Tenke and brought Tenke Mining into Lundin Mining as fast as he could after DRC situation started, otherwise it have been bought already at a floor price. He has put his name on it. Bankrupt Lundin Mining is out of question for this man of honor. If the economy and metal prices stayed robust nothing would need to be done, they were able to make it. But we know what is happening and he acted promtly and we have a new guy in charge. The only positive thing here is the new guy and Lukas being at the front. One more time it is a matter of his name now. He never was bad, why should I think that he has lost his grip now? All these worries about the end of commodity bull is mere abberation for me. The biggest difference between Lundin Mining and Google is its tangible, desired assets, which can not be replicated at any human's will and ability. Now we have a problem, a major one, our ownership of the most important asset in DRC is under question. Once it will be resolved, share price will find its way up. And here is another very important thing: I will not mind that the value of Tenke Fungurume will be realised in Freeport-McMoRan shares, if they will bid for LMC. Here is why I am playing this game, unless goods are fall out of demand, the value of the shop (rocks) containing those goods will always be above zero. If it is not stolen, damaged (non recoverable) or pledged for loans (stolen by management and bankers) it will protect your downside.

As always do not forget to think while reading. Spelling is not working as usual, sorry.

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