Saturday, November 15, 2008

Fear Index VIX indicating Reversal Down, confirming Dow DIA Reversal Up. DIA, GDX

We have a very good picture confirming Bullish Reversal in Dow DIA: fear index VIX is forming a Bearish reversal with potential resolution Down. Dow retest of Low happen with less amount of Fear: market participants were ready to pay less premium for Put protection and Volatility expectation is going Down. For a definite move in the Dow from deflation to positive Inflation outcome next weak Rally must be fueled by this weekend action on key to all things now US Dollar. Fed is fighting Japan style Deflation and flooding the system with the money, in order that all these flood came into real economy you need to return normal velocity of money. Fear and panic is leading to Fire Sell, downward spiral in markets with Dow as indicator is leading to further margin calls, redemption and Risk not taking. Money are stashed at the Fed on banks accounts. Spiral became self reinforcing: panic - fire sell - prices down - more panic etc. Fed can not leave it to "effective market" any more. There is no such thing with Fed in existence and more practical importance is that all economy will be killed by derivatives, Lehman was a turning point which showed that collapse will take down all financial system. Everything is on the table now: turn markets into Inflation expectations and try to liquidate all "bad derivative positions". If velocity will not be returned now in the form of Weaker US Dollar, higher Long term Yield which will lead to steeper curve and Banks ability to make money by lending, Flood will eventually happen, but too late and with much more water when all economy will be submerged under hyperinflation. This money creation and record deficits for years to come already making all things are hardly manageable in US Corp. But there is a chance and it must be taken. Please follow to Us Dollar chart.

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